"Wasserman ran a simulation designed to calculate what would happen in 2016, relative to 2012, if whites turned out at the same rate they did in 1992, while assuming that the vote shares of every other group remain constant. The good news for Trump: This really could theoretically bring in some nine million additional white voters, which could be enough for him to win the national popular vote (again, assuming that everything else remained consistent with 2012).
But here’s the catch: Wasserman finds, remarkably, that “these ‘missing’ white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race.” In only three battleground states — Florida, Ohio, and Nevada — would full activation of these “missing” white voters be enough to potentially make a difference.
Two important points on top of this: All of this assumes that Trump will perform as well among nonwhites and college educated whites as Mitt Romney did, an assumption that is extremely generous to Trump.
“In most battleground states, Trump would need to activate far more working-class whites than Perot did to win,” Wasserman concludes.”Trump would require truly historic levels of support and turnout among working-class whites — in addition to avoiding erosion with other groups — to be within range of winning.”
And some of the steps that Trump is taking to maximize white turnout, particularly blue collar white turnout — such as vowing mass deportations — could actually drive up turnout among nonwhites, offsetting any advantage Trump gains with white voters." Washington Post
But here’s the catch: Wasserman finds, remarkably, that “these ‘missing’ white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race.” In only three battleground states — Florida, Ohio, and Nevada — would full activation of these “missing” white voters be enough to potentially make a difference.
Two important points on top of this: All of this assumes that Trump will perform as well among nonwhites and college educated whites as Mitt Romney did, an assumption that is extremely generous to Trump.
“In most battleground states, Trump would need to activate far more working-class whites than Perot did to win,” Wasserman concludes.”Trump would require truly historic levels of support and turnout among working-class whites — in addition to avoiding erosion with other groups — to be within range of winning.”
And some of the steps that Trump is taking to maximize white turnout, particularly blue collar white turnout — such as vowing mass deportations — could actually drive up turnout among nonwhites, offsetting any advantage Trump gains with white voters." Washington Post
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