What Happened? What did the "Polls" miss?

"The regional breakdown is enjoying an unusual place in the spotlight this election, as commentators focus on the unexpectedly high turnout among rural voters.
That Trump had such an advantage in rural areas (62 percent over Clinton's 34 percent) is not so surprising. What is surprising is how wrong so many polls proved to be.
Part of this surprise came from flawed polling models derived from the 2012 electoral makeup. Rural turnout in 2012 was exceptionally low, and this year's soaring rural turnout likely contributed to the overall havoc wreaked on this year's polling models." CH

What Happened? Where was the "Latino Backlash"?

"If the 2008 turnover of presidential power was a story of the black vote, the 2016 race was expected

to be a story about the Latino vote.

Multiple outlets, including The New York Times and The Atlantic, were predicting that Trump had alienated—perhaps permanently—Latino voters across the country, spelling disaster for his campaign and possibly the Republican Party far into the future.

However, this mass alienation of Latinos failed to materialize, as Trump actually performed marginally better than Romney among both Latinos and blacks, gaining in both groups by two points. This paved the way for Trump's victory in the swing state of Florida." CH

What Happened? Economic & Education Levels Shifted

"The voting trend in recent elections has been one of Democrats gaining among lower-income voters,

and Republicans gaining among higher-income voters.
This election saw a continuation of that trend, as Democrats captured the majority of voters making less than $50,000 (52 percent) and Republicans carried the majority of voters making over $50,000 (49 percent).
But notably, this trend was softened by gains Trump made among those making under $30,000 (+6 percent) and losses among those making over $50,000 (-4 percent). This is one small indication of the unusual effect Trump has had among blue-collar voters.
This effect is made even plainer when dissecting education level. Unlike the income trend above, the education trend occurring within the Republican Party actually strengthened with Trump, as he won a greater percentage of those with less than a college degree (52 percent, up five points from Romney's 47 percent) and continued to lose ground among those with more education (43 percent, down five points from Romney's 48 percent)." CH

What happened? to "white millenials"?

"President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign was known in part for energizing millennial voters, who

typically vote at lower rates than older voters.
Obama carried 66 percent of the 18-29 age cohort that year. But this effect began to dissipate in the 2012 election, as Obama lost the white millennial vote to Romney.
This year, Trump largely maintained that hold, carrying 48 percent of the white 18-29 vote—a five-point lead over Clinton. Despite minor fluctuations among the older generations, the age breakdown among Trump voters is similar to that of Romney voters.
Clinton, on the other hand, was less effective than even Obama's second campaign at garnering support among the 18-29 crowd. As a result, the wide age gap begun in the 2004 election has continued to close, as Trump held steady among millennials and Clinton lost her grip on the promising demographic." CH

2016 National Map

2016 National Map
Trump (Blue)
Hillary (Red)
Electoral Vote:
Trump 306
Hillary 232
Popular Vote:
Hillary 47%
Trump 47%
 

2016 "TREXIT" (America's BREXIT?)

2016 Exit POLLS

Gender     Clinton    Trump
Male          41%          53%
Female      54%          42%

AGE
18-24         56%         35%
25-29         53%         39%
30-39         51%         40%
40-49         46%         50%
50-64         44%         53%
65+            45%         53%

White men 31%         63%
White women 43%    53%
Black men    80%       13%
Black women 94%      4%
Latino men   62%       33%
Latino women 68%     26%
Others           61%        32%

Party ID
Democrats    89%        9%
Republican    7%          90%
Independent  42%         48%

Veterans       34%          61%
non-Veteran  50%         45%

Union household?
YES                51%         43%
NO                  46%         49%
CNN

Catholic Surge Boosted Trump

"Despite months of pre-election polls showing Catholics backing Hillary Clinton, exit polls show Donald Trump won a majority of Catholic votes on Tuesday. Now, Catholic leaders are congratulating the president-elect while simultaneously calling for unity in a highly fractured nation.
Two American cardinals took to Twitter to urge Catholics to pray for Mr. Trump.
“Congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump,” Cardinal Sean O’Malley of Boston tweeted. “May God grant you good health, wisdom and courage during your presidency.” AmericaMagazine

Evangelicals, Catholics & Mormons backed Trump

"A strong white evangelical, white Catholic and Mormon vote for Donald Trump belied the condemnation many religious leaders had leveled at the tycoon and paved the way for a stunning upset after a long and polarizing campaign.

Preliminary exit polls indicate these religious groups voted for Trump by wide margins — and, in

the case of white evangelicals, wider than they had given to GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.
Christians who described themselves as evangelical and born-again gave Trump 81 percent of their votes, up 3 percentage points from their support for Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton garnered 16 percent of their votes.

White Catholics also favored Trump, casting 60 percent of their ballots for him, compared to 37 percent for Clinton.
But it was the reverse for Latino Catholics: 67 percent went for Clinton and 26 for Trump.
Catholics overall voted for Trump over Clinton 52 percent to 45 percent. That’s despite Pope Francis and other prominent Catholics’ rebuke of the candidate for railing against minority groups.

Mormons nationally, according to exit polls, preferred Trump to Clinton by 61 to 25 percent." BCN

Sanders comments on Trump's Win

"Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said in an interview today that it was "an embarrassment" that millions of white working-class voters decided to support Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. 
"It is an embarrassment, I think, to the entire of Democratic Party that millions of white working-class people decided to vote for Mr. Trump, which suggests that the Democratic message of standing up for working people no longer holds much sway among workers in this country," Sanders said, calling for a reshaping of the party's message." FOX

Trump splits off one of Maine's Electoral Votes

".....split electoral votes -2 EVs to winner of popular vote statewide -1 apiece to winner in each congressional district." CBS

Racial Divide / Turnout Analysis

"Trump won whites without a college degree by 67-28 percent; that yawning 39-point margin is the largest in exit polls dating back to 1980 and exceeds Ronald Reagan’s 32-point win in that group in 1984, his re-election year. Turnout among this group was not up; indeed whites overall fell to their smallest share of the electorate, 70 percent. Instead, it was the lopsided nature of their vote.

Hillary Clinton, for her part, overwhelmingly won nonwhites, and their share of the electorate inched ahead to 30 percent, its largest on record. But her margin in this group narrowed slightly from Barack Obama’s in 2012, among blacks, Hispanics and Asian-Americans alike." NBC

Trump Did Better With Blacks, Hispanics Than Romney in '12:

"Trump claimed 29 percent of the Hispanic vote on Tuesday compared to Romney's 27 percent in 2012. With blacks, exit polls show Trump claimed 8 percent of the vote to the previous Republican nominee's 6 percent." NBC

Coming Democrat Civil War?

"The coming Democratic bloodbath
We will end on this note: There's a bloodbath coming for the Democratic Party, and it will start with the race to be DNC chair. Will the Bernie Sanders coalition flex its muscles? What happens to Nancy Pelosi? Does she retire? The Democratic Party is a mess -- without much of a bench." msnbc

Black Vote Down

"On Tuesday, we wrote how Election Night 2016 was going to be the final Obama battle. And guess what, his coalition didn't come out in the numbers it previously did:

• African Americans broke for Clinton, 88%-8% -- down from Obama's 93%-6% in '12
• Latinos broke 65%-29% -- down from 71%-27% in '12
• Millennials went 55%-37% for Clinton -- down from 60%-37% in '12." msnbc

Rural America Gave Trump the White House

"One of the biggest reasons Donald Trump shocked the world last night was that he overperformed -- big league -- in Rural America, especially in the previously blue Midwest states he flipped to surge above 270 electoral votes. Just look at these numbers:

• Michigan: Per the exit polls, Trump won rural and small towns by a 57%-38% margin -- up from Mitt Romney's 53%-46%.
• Pennsylvania: He won rural and small towns by a whopping 71%-26% -- versus Romney's 59%-40%.
• Wisconsin: He won rural and small towns by 63%-34% -- up from Romney's 53%-46%.

By contrast, Hillary Clinton slightly underperformed in these states' urban areas. Still, she carried Philadelphia by about 450,000 votes, which was the same margin Obama won in 2012. In the waning days of the 2016 election, so much of the talk was about Latinos in Florida and Nevada, or college-educated white voters in the suburbs. But the story of last night was white voters coming out in droves for Donald Trump.: msnbc

TRUMP Trumps HILLARY

Hillary Wins - Guam?

"The territory, located west of the international date line, is 15 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time and bills itself as “Where America’s Day Begins.”
With 32,071 voters casting ballots, Democrat Clinton received 71.63% of the vote. Republican Donald Trump received 24.16%, and Socialist candidate Emidio Soltysik — the only third-party candidate on the ballot — received  4.22%.
Although all voters here are American citizens, their votes in the presidential race do not count because Guam has no representation in the Electoral College." msn

FINAL L.A. TIMES TRACKING POLL

"Trump 46.8% Clinton 43.6%." L.A. Times

Midnight Vote: 2012 Vs. 2016

"This point in 2012: (New Hampshire)
Obama: 33 votes
Romney: 30
2016:
Trump: 32
Clinton: 25" PSR

Midnight Vote: Trump Leads

"Donald Trump is off to a very early lead in the 2016 presidential election, winning over the voters of three New Hampshire precincts by a 32-25 margin over Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton won over the voters of Dixville, New Hampshire, by 4 votes to 2 over Trump.
While Clinton won half the Dixville votes, Libertarian Gary Johnson took one and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a write-in vote.

In Hart’s Location, the vote was Clinton 17, Trump 14, Gary Johnson 3, Bernie Sanders 2, John Kasich 1.

In Millsfield, N.H., the vote was Trump 16, Clinton 4, Bernie Sanders 1." Q13FOX

THIS BLOG IS TAKING MONDAY OFF---BACK TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DETAILED RESULTS

HERE'S WHERE WE END - 1 DAY BEFORE

TAKING Monday OFF Politics.......

2 Scenarios: who will be right?
1) Conventional Wisdom- Media Pundits, Media Polls & Nate Silver's 538...... All are predicting a narrow Hillary Win. But

gone are the days of predicting a Hillary blowout (as recent as a couple of weeks ago). Nate Silver leaves an opening to be wrong. He points out within every 7 elections, roughly a 3rd of a century, the underdog pulls a surprise upset. We haven't had that since Reagan over Carter in 1980. We are due for one. Will this be the one is the question.
2) Election Models- There are 4 Election Models that have NEVER been wrong yet in predicting the popular vote winner in all

elections-future & past-that they are applicable to. ("The 13 Keys to the White House" applied back to 1860, The "Primary Model" applied back to 1912, The "Time for a Change/ "G.D.P. Model" applied back to 1948 and the newer "AI Model" beginning in 2004). These models ALL predict a Trump popular vote victory. (But remember, as 3 times in history, the popular vote winner lost the electoral vote, so a Hillary "win" via electoral vote is possible, like 2000). Will the Election Models continue their 100% correct prediction streak--or be shattered in 2016?.....Backing the Election Models are the tracking Polls of IDP/TIPP (most accurate this century) & the L.A. Times Tracking Poll (using the biggest sample size-the bigger the sample size usually the more accurate).

BOTTOM LINE----

Either the Conventinal Wisdom crowd will be embarrassed on election night, or the Election Models will be thrown in the ash heap of political history.....


*1980 Comparison- Reagan was behind in all the Media Polls, the pundits thought Carter would squeak by.
@Reagan's slogan was "Let's Make America Great

Again" (Trump's is "Make America Great Again").
@Anderson, an Independent, (and Republican congressman) was pulling over 5% (got 7%) as he was an alternative for G.O.P. elites who looked down on Reagan's Conservatism (like the G.O.P. elites who look down on Trump's Populism) an alternative for Ted Kennedy primary voters who didn't like Carter (like some young voters who supported Sanders don't like Hillary)

and of swing voters who weren't sure about Reagan and were turned off to Carter by the Recession (like swing voters turned off by Trump's mouth & Hillary's Corruption). This year the major 3rd Party role of Anderson is played by Libertarian Party Gary Johnson (a former Republican governor fluctuating between 5-7% with an Anderson style coalition).
@Also, that year was a small 3rd party movement that got 1%, Libertarian Party Ed Clark (like Green Party Jill Stein pulling 1-2%).
@Carter, the establishment Democrat, fended off a primary

challenge from the left by Ted Kennedy, that went all the way to the end of the primaries with Carter winning the delegate count by 61-39%. (Hillary, the establishment Democrat, was challenged by the parties left all the way to the end by Sanders, and Hillary won the delegate count 61-39%).
@IF, and only IF, Trump wins, it won't be a Reagan Landslide (he unseated the incumbent in a major 3 way race by double digits & swept 44 states). Rather it would be much closer due to Trump lacking Reagan's charisma (that "Old Reagan Magic" as it was called) and no recession for an extra bounce

(although we've had an 8 year stagnant economy that feels like a recession, but people now seem to accept this as the new norm).


*2000 Comparison- IF the Election Models are right, and Trump

wins the popular vote, the margin could still turn out with a split in popular & electoral vote. But this has only happened 3 times.

*--BUT--, what if no one gets a majority of the Electoral Vote? The Electors meet in mid December and can vote for WHOEVER they want....Literally ANYBODY (only a few states have "bound" electors).
The race would be on for Republican electors to peel off & vote for some others (like Rubio, Romney, Kasich, Cruz, Walker, etc.) to

try and get them into the top 3.
WHY? Because the new Congress, sworn in on Jan. 3 has to decide between the top 3 in Electoral Votes. The House the President, the Senate the Vice President. (this is why they are sworn in on Jan. 5 & the President on Jan.20-in case this ever happens). It would be the establishments last chance to "Dump Trump".

*Finally, what if Hillary amasses exactly the 270 Electoral Votes to win--- but that one Democrat Elector from Washington State, (an American Indian who likes Sanders) who swears he won't cast his Electoral Vote for Hillary, casts it for Sanders? Then it will go on to Congress to pick in January like stated above.

*P.S. - in the above 2 longshot possibilities, the Republican House (they will hold the House) could pick from the top 3 a Republican

President. But if Democrats take the senate (the senate could go either way this election) they would elect Democrat Kaine Vice President....and yes, we have had split parties in office as President & Vice President --Washington (Ind.) & Adams (Fed.)/ Adams (Fed.) & Jefferson (DR)/ Quincy Adams (NR) & Calhoun (D)/ Lincoln (R) & Johnson (D)....But let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

The 2016 Election comes down to

Conventional Wisdom vs. Election Models

May the best Predictor Win...

Hillary's Final Schedule Released

"HRC schedule Sunday: PA > OH > NH HRC schedule Monday: TBD > MI > PA > NC." P1

Trump closer than expected in New Mexico

"NM (Albuquerque Journal): Clinton 45%, Trump 40%, Johnson 11%, Stein 3%." P1

Trump's Final Scedule Released

"Trump's final schedule: Sioux City (Iowa) Minneapolis Sterling Heights Moon Township (Minnesota) Leesburg (Virginia) Sarasota (Florida) Raleigh (North Carolina) Scranton (Pennsylvania) Manchester (new Hampshire) Grand Rapids (Michigan)." P1

Souls to the Polls Sunday

Kaine with Bon Jovi at Rally in Florida

"Armed with a harmonica and an iconic rocker at his side, Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine showed off his musical prowess at a Florida rally Saturday night." ABC 

Hillary Panics over any last minute WikiLeaks

"Clinton campaign is apparently spooked about a "whopper" email that could be dropped by WikiLeaks - Friends, please remember that if you see a whopper of a Wikileaks in next two days - it's probably a fake." ZH

New Scandal: Maidgate

"As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton routinely asked her maid to print out sensitive government e-mails and documents — including ones containing classified information — from her house in Washington, DC, e-mails and FBI memos show. But the housekeeper lacked the security clearance to handle such material.
In fact, Marina Santos was called on so frequently to receive e-mails that she may hold the secrets to E-mailgate — if only the FBI and Congress would subpoena her and the equipment she used." NYP

Johnson in Minnesota

"The crowd of about 400 people, some holding beers in their hands and others hoisting children on their shoulders, roared loudly as Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson called a vote for his competitors “a wasted vote.”
Johnson spoke before his speech about the importance of maintaining momentum to attain major party status both nationally and in Minnesota." PioneerPress

Trump & Pence swinging into Minnesota

"Trump, who has said in recent days that Minnesota is his to win, will make his first public visit to the state Sunday afternoon.
The Trump rally will be at 2 p.m. at the Sun Country hangar at the Minneapolis-St. Paul airport, located at 2005 Cargo Road. Gates will open at 11 a.m.
Vice-presidential nominee Gov. Mike Pence will have a rally at the Duluth airport at 9:30 a.m. Monday." PioneerPress
 

L.A. Times Tracking POLL: Trump by 5.4?

"Trump 48.2% Clinton 42.6%." L.A. Times

Emails: There's more...

"Uncovered: Clinton sent classified emails to her daughter..." LouDobbs

Pollster Zogby sees 2012 -- in Reverse

"Veteran pollster John Zogby sent out an “Uh-oh” alert Saturday night noting that heading into Sunday, two key voting groups that had shifted toward Barack Obama by the Saturday before the 2012 election — and that gave him his victory — were not moving Democrat Hillary Clinton’s way four days before Tuesday’s election.
“Donald Trump will win if kids and blacks stay home,” Mr. Zogby said in response ot an email from The Washington Times.
The two groups were 18-29 year olds---Second, young African Americans “are not quite in Clinton’s Camp.”
“When I see African Americans who are undecided, especially this late in the game, it tells me that they are not going to vote,” Mr. Zogby says.
About one in five young voters are still undecided.... Mrs. Clinton is still polling around 50 percent of 18-29 year olds and many are telling pollsters and reporters that she represents the Establishment, something they reject." WashingtonTimes
 

Arizona POLL: Trump by 5?

"In Arizona, Trump leads Clinton by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, while Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is at 9 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 3 percent." NBC

Kaine gives entire speech in Spanish

"PHOENIX — Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine made history Thursday as he delivered what was called the first speech completely in Spanish by a candidate at an organized campaign rally during a presidential election.
"Latinos will have a very important voice in this election and the option is crystal clear," the senator from Virginia said in Spanish to a crowd of roughly 360 people gathered at the Phoenix rally, which was punctuated by a mariachi band and signs like "Bienvenidos a Arizona." NBC

Pence video Released Targeting Evangelicals

"The Republican campaign is releasing a video of vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence sharing his personal Christian testimony." BCN