Election Model: 13 Keys Predicting a Trump Win in Popular Vote?

The 13 Keys to The White House

The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party.
When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win;
when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: ???? There is no significant third party or independent campaign. -5% threshold is used. ????
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The Keys retrospectively account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from

1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the popular-vote winners of all eight presidential elections from 1984 through 2012.
 According to the Keys model, nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts conventional electioneering as political spin, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies count for virtually nothing on Election Day.