"A closer look at two of the more well established polls used in the RealClearPolitics average reveals
that movement toward Trump does not appear to be an artifact of unrealistic estimates of the composition of the electorate—...It also shows the tightening of the race is not completely due to Republicans coming home to their presumptive nominee. Trump’s increased strength boils down to a shift in support among independents, and that should be of concern to Brooklyn.
Overall, comparing the two most recent ABC/Post polls on the likely matchup between Trump and Clinton, Trump moved from a 9-point deficit in March to a 2-point advantage in May. Similarly, he closed his gap with Clinton by 8 points in the most recent NBC/Journal poll.
In the ABC/Post poll, among Republicans, Clinton does 6 points worse in the new poll than the last poll and Trump does 10 points better. This yields a net 16-point improvement among Republicans for Trump on the difference between the two candidates. That improvement for Trump’s margin over Clinton is 22 percentage points among independents. (In the March ABC/Post poll, Clinton led Trump by 9 points and in the most recent study, she trails him by 13.)." Bloomberg
Overall, comparing the two most recent ABC/Post polls on the likely matchup between Trump and Clinton, Trump moved from a 9-point deficit in March to a 2-point advantage in May. Similarly, he closed his gap with Clinton by 8 points in the most recent NBC/Journal poll.
In the ABC/Post poll, among Republicans, Clinton does 6 points worse in the new poll than the last poll and Trump does 10 points better. This yields a net 16-point improvement among Republicans for Trump on the difference between the two candidates. That improvement for Trump’s margin over Clinton is 22 percentage points among independents. (In the March ABC/Post poll, Clinton led Trump by 9 points and in the most recent study, she trails him by 13.)." Bloomberg
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