"In most presidential primaries, there is a candidate who cannot win. All the other candidates want him to finish second because they are sure that if they can get him one-on-one in a runoff, they will defeat him. The victim must have enough intense support to be able to do well in crowded fields — well enough to make the second round. But he must have sharp limits to his potential vote that doom him to failure.
In 1976 it was George Wallace. In 1988 it was Jesse Jackson. In 1992 it was Jerry Brown. In 1996 it was Steve Forbes. In 2000 it was John McCain. In 2004 it was Howard Dean. In 2008 it was Mike Huckabee (who, like McCain, may do better in his second incarnation). In 2012 it was Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
In the Republican nominating process of 2016, it is Rand Paul.
There’s no question that Paul has an active and passionate base that will earn him votes throughout the primary process. So he is well equipped to make the second round. But, once there, he cannot win.
Particularly as foreign events continue to remind us that we live in a turbulent and threatening world, Paul’s brand of neo-isolationism cannot attract a majority of any electorate in any election. His views seem to predate 1941. While his proposals to reduce the power of the Federal Reserve and his crusade against crony capitalism will win adherents, his support for legalization of drugs, though popular on campus, will turn off voters. His advocacy of a gold standard is either very much behind the times or very much ahead of them. His tepid opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage will appeal to nobody.
Paul will finish second to Ted Cruz or third to Cruz and Scott Walker among the Tea Party activists. He will be the second choice of economic and fiscal conservatives behind Jeb Bush. Huckabee and Cruz will beat him among evangelicals. Anyone will be more attractive to advocates of national security."
DickMorris
In the Republican nominating process of 2016, it is Rand Paul.
There’s no question that Paul has an active and passionate base that will earn him votes throughout the primary process. So he is well equipped to make the second round. But, once there, he cannot win.
Particularly as foreign events continue to remind us that we live in a turbulent and threatening world, Paul’s brand of neo-isolationism cannot attract a majority of any electorate in any election. His views seem to predate 1941. While his proposals to reduce the power of the Federal Reserve and his crusade against crony capitalism will win adherents, his support for legalization of drugs, though popular on campus, will turn off voters. His advocacy of a gold standard is either very much behind the times or very much ahead of them. His tepid opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage will appeal to nobody.
Paul will finish second to Ted Cruz or third to Cruz and Scott Walker among the Tea Party activists. He will be the second choice of economic and fiscal conservatives behind Jeb Bush. Huckabee and Cruz will beat him among evangelicals. Anyone will be more attractive to advocates of national security."
DickMorris
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