Nevada trying to stop Rand Paul?

"A couple years ago, Nevada seemed to be Rand Paul's ace in the hole in the 2016 presidential race. That's looking less and less likely now.

For two reasons: First, the Ron Paul supporters who basically took over the state party in 2012 have largely been replaced, and now, the state GOP is moving toward replacing the Paul-friendly caucus process with a regular primary.

1) Caucuses favor underdogs

Caucuses favor candidates with more devoted supporters and tend to draw from a smaller pool of voters, allowing for someone with more of a niche base to be more competitive.

The most obvious example here is, of course, Ron Paul, Rand's father. In the 2012 campaign, Ron Paul averaged 12 percent of the vote in primary states. In caucus states, it was about double that: 23 percent.


And it wasn't just Ron Paul. Rick Santorum, whose broader appeal in 2012 was certainly limited, put himself on the map with what was belatedly determined to be a win in the Iowa caucuses and then shockingly big victories in Colorado and Minnesota caucuses in early February. And back in 2008, it was Mitt Romney's underdog campaign and Barack Obama's team excelled in caucus settings. (Hillary Clinton actually won more votes in the nominating process but lost because of the caucuses.)

Which brings us to...


2) Nevada is a good state for the Pauls

Nevada has a libertarian reputation.

Ron Paul finished third in Nevada in 2012, at 19 percent. It wasn't quite one of his best states, but that had more to do with the field than with Ron Paul. Namely: There was a Mormon candidate, Mitt Romney, and Mormons have big pull in Nevada caucuses. About one-quarter of GOP caucus-goers in 2012 were Mormon, in fact, and Romney won about nine out of 10 Mormon votes

.
3) More casual voters might have an obvious pick

There's no Romney, but come 2016, it's not hard to see someone like Marco Rubio doing well in Nevada. After all, he used to live in the state (he was also a Mormon as a young man) and is Hispanic.

As mentioned above, Mormons are about one-quarter of the caucus process, and Latinos were about one in 10 voters. That might not sound like a lot, but that's a significant base of support Rubio could tap if he can get either or both to coalesce around him.

4) Nevada is an early state

Because Nevada didn't really matter in the 2008 and 2012 nominating contests (by virtue of Romney's dominance), some underestimate its importance. But it's one of the first four states, and we would argue that if such a caucus/primary change were taking place in New Hampshire or South Carolina, you can bet we'd be talking about it more than this.

Yes, it's fourth out of four, but the race is still very likely to be competitive at that point -- meaning to the extent that a primary hurts Paul, it hurts him in a key state that will help winnow the field of candidates in the first month." WashingtonPost

2008

Primaries