HERE'S WHERE WE END - 1 DAY BEFORE

TAKING Monday OFF Politics.......

2 Scenarios: who will be right?
1) Conventional Wisdom- Media Pundits, Media Polls & Nate Silver's 538...... All are predicting a narrow Hillary Win. But

gone are the days of predicting a Hillary blowout (as recent as a couple of weeks ago). Nate Silver leaves an opening to be wrong. He points out within every 7 elections, roughly a 3rd of a century, the underdog pulls a surprise upset. We haven't had that since Reagan over Carter in 1980. We are due for one. Will this be the one is the question.
2) Election Models- There are 4 Election Models that have NEVER been wrong yet in predicting the popular vote winner in all

elections-future & past-that they are applicable to. ("The 13 Keys to the White House" applied back to 1860, The "Primary Model" applied back to 1912, The "Time for a Change/ "G.D.P. Model" applied back to 1948 and the newer "AI Model" beginning in 2004). These models ALL predict a Trump popular vote victory. (But remember, as 3 times in history, the popular vote winner lost the electoral vote, so a Hillary "win" via electoral vote is possible, like 2000). Will the Election Models continue their 100% correct prediction streak--or be shattered in 2016?.....Backing the Election Models are the tracking Polls of IDP/TIPP (most accurate this century) & the L.A. Times Tracking Poll (using the biggest sample size-the bigger the sample size usually the more accurate).

BOTTOM LINE----

Either the Conventinal Wisdom crowd will be embarrassed on election night, or the Election Models will be thrown in the ash heap of political history.....


*1980 Comparison- Reagan was behind in all the Media Polls, the pundits thought Carter would squeak by.
@Reagan's slogan was "Let's Make America Great

Again" (Trump's is "Make America Great Again").
@Anderson, an Independent, (and Republican congressman) was pulling over 5% (got 7%) as he was an alternative for G.O.P. elites who looked down on Reagan's Conservatism (like the G.O.P. elites who look down on Trump's Populism) an alternative for Ted Kennedy primary voters who didn't like Carter (like some young voters who supported Sanders don't like Hillary)

and of swing voters who weren't sure about Reagan and were turned off to Carter by the Recession (like swing voters turned off by Trump's mouth & Hillary's Corruption). This year the major 3rd Party role of Anderson is played by Libertarian Party Gary Johnson (a former Republican governor fluctuating between 5-7% with an Anderson style coalition).
@Also, that year was a small 3rd party movement that got 1%, Libertarian Party Ed Clark (like Green Party Jill Stein pulling 1-2%).
@Carter, the establishment Democrat, fended off a primary

challenge from the left by Ted Kennedy, that went all the way to the end of the primaries with Carter winning the delegate count by 61-39%. (Hillary, the establishment Democrat, was challenged by the parties left all the way to the end by Sanders, and Hillary won the delegate count 61-39%).
@IF, and only IF, Trump wins, it won't be a Reagan Landslide (he unseated the incumbent in a major 3 way race by double digits & swept 44 states). Rather it would be much closer due to Trump lacking Reagan's charisma (that "Old Reagan Magic" as it was called) and no recession for an extra bounce

(although we've had an 8 year stagnant economy that feels like a recession, but people now seem to accept this as the new norm).


*2000 Comparison- IF the Election Models are right, and Trump

wins the popular vote, the margin could still turn out with a split in popular & electoral vote. But this has only happened 3 times.

*--BUT--, what if no one gets a majority of the Electoral Vote? The Electors meet in mid December and can vote for WHOEVER they want....Literally ANYBODY (only a few states have "bound" electors).
The race would be on for Republican electors to peel off & vote for some others (like Rubio, Romney, Kasich, Cruz, Walker, etc.) to

try and get them into the top 3.
WHY? Because the new Congress, sworn in on Jan. 3 has to decide between the top 3 in Electoral Votes. The House the President, the Senate the Vice President. (this is why they are sworn in on Jan. 5 & the President on Jan.20-in case this ever happens). It would be the establishments last chance to "Dump Trump".

*Finally, what if Hillary amasses exactly the 270 Electoral Votes to win--- but that one Democrat Elector from Washington State, (an American Indian who likes Sanders) who swears he won't cast his Electoral Vote for Hillary, casts it for Sanders? Then it will go on to Congress to pick in January like stated above.

*P.S. - in the above 2 longshot possibilities, the Republican House (they will hold the House) could pick from the top 3 a Republican

President. But if Democrats take the senate (the senate could go either way this election) they would elect Democrat Kaine Vice President....and yes, we have had split parties in office as President & Vice President --Washington (Ind.) & Adams (Fed.)/ Adams (Fed.) & Jefferson (DR)/ Quincy Adams (NR) & Calhoun (D)/ Lincoln (R) & Johnson (D)....But let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

The 2016 Election comes down to

Conventional Wisdom vs. Election Models

May the best Predictor Win...