BIG TAKEAWAYS:
Donald Trump was lifted in New Hampshire by broad support among voters seeking a political outsider, anger at the Obama administration, strong worry about the economy and terrorism – and substantial backing for some of his controversial policy proposals.
Trump did particularly well among voters looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is” and among those with less education. And he appealed to a New Hampshire electorate that was far more conservative than usual for the state, doing much better with strong conservatives and evangelicals
that he did in Iowa.
Among key results explaining his showing:
Half said they wanted a political outsider; 57 percent in this group backed Trump. (The next closest was Ted Cruz, at just 12 percent).
Four in 10 were angry with the Obama administration; Trump won 39 percent of their votes. (Next closest, Cruz, 17 percent).
Two-thirds said they support Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country. He won 42 percent of their votes.
Four in 10 supported deporting undocumented immigrants; Trump won 46 percent in this group
Seven in 10 said they’re “very” worried about the economy. Trump won 35 percent of them.
Six in 10 were “very” worried about terrorism. Trump got 36 percent of their votes.
A fifth of Republican voters were looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is.” While not a large group, it was Trump’s single best – he won 63 percent of their votes.
He also won 34 percent of those focused on focused on “change.”
Voters who haven’t gone beyond high school were Trump’s best group by education; he won 45 percent of their votes. His support fell as education increased, to 21 percent among voters with a post-graduate education – still highly competitive even in that group.
Trump also did notably well in one further group – winning four in 10 of those who are optimistic about life for the next generation of Americans.
His support was remarkably consistent among many other groups – by gender, ideology, partisanship, income and most age groups, save seniors.
In the scrum for second place:
Jon Kasich looks like Trump’s opposite in many respects. His best groups include those who
oppose banning Muslims or deporting undocumented immigrants, moderates, more-educated voters, those who are “somewhat” rather than very worried about the economy and terrorism. Those who are “dissatisfied” rather than angry with the federal government and those focused on experience rather than an outsider.
Ted Cruz’s best groups are strong conservatives, evangelicals and values voters – just as in Iowa. But there were fewer of them in New Hampshire, and those who did appear titled less strongly to Cruz.
Marco Rubio did best on electability, experience and with voters younger than 45.
Jeb Bush likewise did his best among voters focused on experience or on handling an international crisis, and with moderates.
ABC
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